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This set of line graphs compare the COGME requirements for physician
generalists with various projections of physician supply under various
specialty mix scenarios. It shows that if no change occurs in the generalist-specialty
mix of the current supply (30 percent generalists-70 percent specialists),
the generalist supply will remain below the midpoint of the requirements
range throughout the period 2000 to 2020. Increases in the percentage
of generalists to 50 percent or above without reduction in total numbers
of residents would result in rapid increases in the generalist physician
to population ratio, exceeding the requirement range by the year 2010. |
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