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This set of line graphs compare the COGME requirements for physician
specialists with various projections of physician supply under various
specialty mix scenarios. It shows that the specialist ratio well exceeds
the upper limit of the requirements range under all scenarios that range
from 30 percent to 60 percent generalists. Under the current mix of
30 percent generalists and 70 percent specialists, the number of specialists
will exceed the requirements range by a substantial amount; this gap
will increase by 2010. If no reduction in first year residents occurs,
only a reduction of specialists to 40 percent of current graduates would
result in reductions approximating the specialist requirement range
in 2020. |
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