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| Figure
6A-Generalist Physician Supply Under Alternative Specialty Mix Scenarios
When Physician Output is Reduced to 110% of United States Medical Graduates
This set of graphs compare physician generalist requirements of COGME
to various specialty mix alternatives when the supply of total residents
is reduced to 110 percent of US medical school graduates. The graphs
show that a reduction to 110 percent of USMGs in first year positions
without modification in the generalist/specialist mix provides only
modest reductions in the specialist-to-population ratio while the ratio
of generalist positions lies below the midpoint of the requirements
range. If the total number of residents is reduced to 110 percent of
USMGs and the percentage of generalists is increased to 50 percent,
the ratio of generalists-to-population will be 77 per 100,000-below
the upper end of the requirement range in the year 2010. Were the mix
to increase to 60 percent generalists, the ratio of generalists-to-population
would exceed the requirements range by the year 2020. |
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