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Figure
6B-Specialist Physician Supply Under Alternative Specialty Mix Scenarios
When Physician Output is Reduced to 110% of United States Medical Graduates
This set of graphs compare physician specialist requirements of COGME
to various specialty mix alternatives when the supply of total residents
is reduced to 110 percent of US medical school graduates. If the total
number of residents is reduced to 110 percent of USMGs and the percentage
of generalists is increased to 50 percent, the ratio of specialists-to-population
will fall to a level of 134 per 100,000B 87,000 specialists above the
requirement range in the year 2010. Were the mix to increase to 60 percent
generalists, the ratio of specialists-to-population would drop within
the requirements range by the year 2020.
Taken together, both Figures 6A and 6B indicate that both a reduction
in trainees to at least 110 percent of USMGs as well as an increase
in proportion of generalists to 50 percent will be bring generalist
and specialist population ratios toward the upper limits of their respective
requirement ranges.
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